Been paying attention to the market mood lately, and honestly, it's getting tense. A recent survey showed about 72% of Americans are pretty pessimistic about the economy right now, with nearly 40% expecting things to get worse over the next year. That kind of sentiment usually doesn't come out of nowhere.

Here's what's catching my eye. Two major valuation metrics are flashing some serious warning signs that a stock market crash might not be as far-fetched as some people think.

First, there's the S&P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio. This measures the index's average inflation-adjusted earnings over the past decade. When this ratio gets too high, it historically means the market is stretched. Right now it's sitting around 40 - which is wild when you consider the long-term average hovers around 17. The last time we saw levels this extreme was during the dot-com bubble in 1999, when it hit 44. We all know how that ended. It also peaked at around 193% back in late 2021, right before the market rolled over into a bear market that lasted most of 2022.

Then there's the Buffett indicator. This one compares the total market cap of all U.S. stocks against GDP. Higher ratio means overvalued, lower means undervalued. Warren Buffett himself famously used this metric to call the dot-com crash, and he's said on record that if this ratio approaches 200%, you're basically playing with fire. Guess where we are now? Around 219%. That's higher than it was even in late 2021.

So what does this actually mean? Well, no metric can tell you exactly when a stock market crash will happen or how severe it'll be. The market could keep grinding higher for months before any pullback. But that doesn't mean you should ignore these signals either.

If you're genuinely concerned about protecting yourself, the move is straightforward - focus on quality. Companies with solid fundamentals, strong balance sheets, and real competitive advantages tend to weather volatility better. That's not sexy advice, but it works. A portfolio built on quality holdings will let you sleep better at night and actually position you to benefit when the inevitable downturn eventually passes.

The data isn't screaming 'crash tomorrow,' but it's definitely worth paying attention to. History suggests these valuations don't stay elevated forever.