Just been checking the sugar charts and prices are still struggling to find momentum. NY sugar hit a 2-week low on Thursday while London white sugar also closed in the red. The real story behind these moves? Everyone's talking about the global sugar surplus that's not going away anytime soon.

Looking at the latest forecasts, analysts are pretty consistent on this - we're looking at multi-million metric ton surpluses stretching into 2026/27. India's ramping up production and just got approval for an extra 500k MT of exports, which is definitely weighing on prices. Thailand's also increasing output while Brazil's showing some weakness, but not enough to offset the bigger supply picture.

What caught my attention though is how crude oil's been surging lately. When oil rallies hard, mills tend to divert more cane toward ethanol instead of sugar, which could actually tighten supplies. But for now, that surplus outlook is the dominant factor keeping sugar news in bearish territory. The market seems resigned to lower prices until we see real evidence of demand picking up or production actually falling short of these projections.