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So Netflix is down roughly 40% from last summer's peak and people keep asking me why stock down this much. The real story here is that massive $82.7 billion acquisition Netflix is trying to pull off with Warner Bros. Discovery assets. That's the main thing spooking investors right now.
Here's what's weighing on people: Netflix only has about $9 billion sitting in cash, so they'd need to take on serious debt to finance an all-cash deal of that size. That's a lot of leverage to pile on, and the market's nervous about whether Netflix can actually pull this off without straining the balance sheet.
What's interesting is the valuation story that's developed. Before this drop, Netflix was trading at crazy multiples - we're talking 60x trailing earnings, 50x forward. That was expensive for a company growing revenue in the mid-teens, especially when you've got AI companies growing 50%+ at cheaper valuations. Now after the 40% decline, Netflix is actually trading more in line with other big tech names, which changes the calculus.
The key question is whether Netflix management can actually integrate these Warner Bros. assets and create real value. If they pull it off, this looks like solid value at current prices. If they fumble it, they could be dealing with the debt overhang for years. That's probably why stock down so much - it's really a bet on execution at this point. The company's proven they know how to maximize assets before, but this is their biggest swing yet.