Just wrapped up reviewing the cobalt market's wild 2025 ride, and honestly, it's one of those years where supply policy completely rewrote the narrative.

Started out rough. January had cobalt hitting nine-year lows around US$24,343 per metric ton — the market was drowning in oversupply after years of ramped-up production outpacing EV demand growth. Then February hit differently. The DRC, which basically controls three-quarters of global cobalt supply, suddenly banned exports. That single move flipped everything.

Within weeks, prices jumped above US$34,000. By year-end, cobalt metal was trading at US$53,005. The price recovery was insane — sulphate prices climbed 266 percent, hydroxide jumped 328 percent. This wasn't gradual; it was a shock to the system that forced the entire market to recalibrate.

What's interesting is how the market then looked toward Indonesia as a backup. They've been scaling up cobalt output as a byproduct of their nickel operations, hitting around 31,000 metric tons in 2024. Chinese refiners started treating Indonesian material as a substitute for DRC hydroxide, but it wasn't enough to fully offset the supply crunch. The market basically moved from chronic glut to managed scarcity in a few months.

Through Q2 and Q3, things stabilized in that US$33,000 to US$37,000 range while everyone watched how long the DRC would hold firm. Inventories tightened. Chinese import data showed the squeeze was real. By October, instead of extending the full ban, the DRC switched to a quota system — capping annual exports at roughly 96,600 metric tons, about half of 2024 levels. That structural shift sent prices surging past US$47,000 again.

Looking at the cobalt price forecast for 2026, analysts are calling for a deficit environment. Fastmarkets projects a structural shortfall of about 10,700 metric tons against demand near 292,300 metric tons. The consensus is that prices will stay elevated as quotas replace the ban. Some forecasts suggest cobalt could average near US$55,000 through 2026.

The real wildcard is whether EV makers start shifting toward low-cobalt or cobalt-free chemistries to escape the pricing pressure. If that happens, it could slow demand growth and reshape the entire market structure. But for now, the cobalt price forecast remains bullish — the DRC's policy moves have essentially created a supply-constrained environment that's here to stay.