CITIC Futures: Pay attention to Trump's subsequent statements regarding Iran

After the easing of Middle East tensions boosted market expectations, concerns over sustained inflation shocks have cooled, and the main focus of precious metal trading has shifted back to slowing growth and interest rate cut expectations. Trump signaled that military operations related to Iran are likely to end within the next two to three weeks, while Powell stated that long-term inflation expectations remain relatively stable. Market worries about further tightening continue to subside, with the dollar retreating and real interest rate decline expectations supporting gold. Meanwhile, after experiencing a significant correction in March, capital has flowed back into allocations, and gold’s defensive attributes have regained favor. Goldman Sachs also maintains a relatively optimistic outlook on year-end gold prices, further strengthening medium-term allocation sentiment. If U.S. growth and employment data continue to weaken, gold is still expected to remain in a relatively strong oscillation. Even if geopolitical tensions marginally ease, as long as markets continue to trade in a loose monetary environment, support below for gold will remain. In the short term, attention should be paid to Trump’s subsequent statements on Iran, Federal Reserve officials’ comments, and U.S. economic data performance. (CITIC Futures)