Pan Shiyi releases: My reflections

He said that in the past few days, when gathering with friends, the topic always revolves around major events in real estate, with losses calculated in trillions, and the entire industry nearly collapsing.
The pain caused to countless families and society as a whole may take years or even decades to gradually heal.
1. Industry root causes: Inherent imbalance in the model
1. From welfare housing to commercial housing: Borrowing from the Hong Kong model but going astray, rules like shared areas becoming distorted, laying hidden dangers for the industry.
2. Uncontrolled mortgage leverage: Down payment ratios gradually relaxed from 50% to zero, with violations like installment payments, shadow contracts, fake transaction records rampant, infinitely amplifying leverage risks.
3. Pre-sale system and land banks: The pre-sale system allows developers to sell before construction, misappropriating funds; land bank models promote land hoarding by developers and government reliance on land finance, forming a distorted interest community.
2. Industry distortion: Deviating from the essence and losing control
1. Twisted competition logic: The industry has degenerated from “building good houses” to “competing on leverage, land acquisition, and scale,” with high debt and high turnover becoming mainstream, and financialization detaching from the essence of housing.
2. Malignant ecological cycle: Developers rely on pre-sale funds and borrowing to sustain operations; governments push up land prices; homebuyers blindly chase rising prices, collectively inflating bubbles, turning into a drum-beating Ponzi scheme with extreme fragility.
3. Public opinion and regulatory constraints: The industry atmosphere only allows praise, skeptics are seen as outsiders, missing early correction opportunities.
It’s not a housing price problem; the entire model is flawed. Pre-sales, shared areas, land finance—step by step, pushing the industry into the abyss.
A speck of dust in the era, falling on countless families, becomes a mountain.