The market is showing an interesting divergence.

Lending rates for BTC have turned negative. This indicates that the demand to borrow for short selling is higher than usual, and the pessimistic side is currently in the lead in the short term.
In the options market, most traders are holding (put options). They are hedging against the scenario of further price declines. The overall sentiment is cautious, even leaning towards negativity.
But history tells a different story.
In many previous instances when similar structures appeared – negative funding, put positions dominating – the market was often very close to a bottom.
Statistics show that over 80% of such cases subsequently led to a strong rally, triggering a “short squeeze” effect that forced short sellers to close their positions in panic.
Currently, BTC is struggling with an important resistance zone.
Most of the market believes this area will hold and the price will be rejected.
This very belief creates an imbalance of positions.
When too many people bet on one direction, the market usually chooses the opposite direction.
Another factor not to be overlooked is the correlation with traditional markets.
When Nasdaq and other stock indices continue to rise, BTC often reacts with a higher beta coefficient — meaning it tends to increase more sharply than the underlying market.
If that scenario repeats, the selling pressure from short liquidations could trigger a chain reaction.
What’s crucial right now isn’t what the market is thinking.
It’s how the market will force the majority to be wrong.
The structure is in place.
The sentiment has tilted to one side.