Is the more you talk, the more you fight? This is the real script of great power games

Many people think negotiation = cooling down, but in fact—the opposite is true—negotiation often comes with increased pressure.
On one side are diplomats talking, on the other are armies moving; this is not a contradiction, but standard operation. Because negotiations without pressure often lead to no results.
America's logic is simple:
“I can negotiate, but you must first feel the cost of not negotiating.”
Iran's logic is the same:
“I can retreat, but I can't look like I'm retreating.”
So the situation becomes—superficial easing, underlying tension.
Why does the market rise?
Because capital believes more in “no war in the short term.” But the problem is: no war ≠ no risk.
If negotiations fail, the current market rally will turn into “pre-spent sentiment,” and a sharp pullback will follow.
So the key is not “whether there will be a fight,” but:
👉 Has the market priced in the “worst-case scenario”?
The answer is: no. #美伊局势和谈与增兵博弈