Just noticed coffee prices are climbing today, with robusta up nearly 4.4% and arabica gaining over 1.4%. The shipping situation through the Strait of Hormuz is really impacting things right now—insurance and fuel costs for importers have jumped significantly, which is supporting prices higher.

That said, the longer-term picture is mixed. Brazil just got some solid rainfall in their main growing regions, and the country's looking at a record harvest this year. Vietnam's been flooding the market with robusta exports too—January shipments jumped nearly 40% year-over-year. So while we're seeing coffee prices go up in the short term, there's a lot of supply pressure building underneath.

The real question is whether these supply concerns can keep prices elevated. Brazil's production forecast is massive, and global inventories have been recovering lately. If that trend continues, it could limit how much higher coffee prices can actually climb. Worth watching how the geopolitical situation plays out though—that's the wildcard right now.