Interesting timing to revisit this MSFT stock split prediction from late 2025. We're already a few months into 2026 and it's worth checking if Microsoft actually followed through or if the company is still sitting on the sidelines while others make their moves.

Last year, there was a pretty solid case being made for why Microsoft could be the next big tech name to split its stock. The company hadn't done a split since February 2003 - that's over two decades ago. Meanwhile, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Tesla, Broadcom, and Netflix all completed splits as their valuations skyrocketed through the AI boom. Microsoft's share price was trading around $490 at that point, which definitely felt expensive to a lot of retail investors watching from the sidelines.

Here's the thing about stock splits that often gets misunderstood: they don't actually change what a company is worth. If Microsoft did a 5-for-1 split, the share price would drop to roughly $98 and the share count would jump to around 37 billion, but the market cap stays exactly the same. What splits really do is make shares feel more accessible and generate buzz. Companies use them partly as psychology plays - getting retail investors excited again and making financial news channels talk about them for days.

Microsoft's situation has been interesting to watch. The company gained 92% during the AI revolution, which sounds great until you compare it to how the Nasdaq moved. Some of Microsoft's peers absolutely crushed it, while MSFT felt like it was playing catch-up despite having Azure and making moves in AI infrastructure. The Windows maker was also dealing with a perception problem - still seen by many as kind of an old guard player compared to the flashier AI darlings.

So the MSFT stock split prediction made sense on paper. The company had the precedent of others doing it, the share price was at a level that might turn away retail buyers, and management probably wanted to reignite some enthusiasm. Plus, Microsoft had gone flat for like a decade in the 2000s before its cloud business turned things around. A split could be seen as a refresh move.

But here we are in April 2026 and I'm curious if this prediction actually panned out or if Microsoft decided to skip it. Either way, the broader story remains solid - Microsoft is still a legitimate choice for long-term investors even if it's not the flashiest name in the AI space. Whether or not an MSFT stock split happens, the company's fundamentals in cloud computing and enterprise AI integration keep it relevant. That said, the psychology of a split shouldn't be completely dismissed. Sometimes these moves matter more than the pure math suggests.