Opinion: BTC’s second attempt to challenge $75,400 will more likely lead to a pullback, with the short-term holders’ cost basis in focus.

Mars Finance reports that on April 16, on-chain analyst Murphy said that the cost basis of short-term holders holding for 1–3 months (1–3m_RP) is approximately $75,400, which is near the current price. In this ongoing downward trend, BTC has rebounded for the second time near this resistance level. The last time it rebounded close to this level was between January 13 and January 19; after slightly breaking through, it triggered selling pressure and continued to pull back. Based on past data, analysts believe there is a high likelihood of another retracement. In the past three cycles, there has never been a case where only the second attempt to challenge a resistance level succeeded in reversing. In addition, one potential path is that after BTC breaks through, it encounters a larger resistance level above—namely the short-term holder average cost line (STH-RP). At present, around $81,000, there are 2.31 million BTC. If BTC meets resistance here after moving upward, the market will need time to absorb the selling pressure and begin to choose its direction cautiously.