Since the retreat from the previous high of 126150, the price has undergone a deep correction, dropping to around 59888, and then entered a daily chart-level consolidation and rebound phase. Currently, the price repeatedly tests below the key resistance level of 76,000 without a confirmed breakout, and remains in a weak consolidation pattern after the correction.

Key resistance level: The 76,000-77,000 zone is the core resistance area for this rebound, corresponding to the previous decline point and the upper boundary of the consolidation box. The price has attempted to break through multiple times but has not stabilized, indicating that selling pressure above remains heavy.

Wave and structure: From a pattern perspective, the current movement shows an ABC correction rebound structure, with no clear trend reversal signals yet. If the price cannot effectively break above the upper boundary of the box, it is likely to continue oscillating or test the bottom again; if volume increases and it stabilizes above 77,000, the box structure will be invalidated, and a bullish rally may begin.

Volume and indicators: During the current rebound, volume has not significantly increased, indicating insufficient bullish momentum, and market sentiment remains cautious. The trend reversal window is gradually approaching.

Short-term strategy: Before the price effectively stabilizes above 77,000, maintain a "no break, no formation" approach, prioritize a bearish outlook, and consider gradually shorting at the 76,000-77,000 resistance zone, with a stop-loss above 77,500. The target range for the swing trade is 70,000-65,000.

Bullish conditions: If the price volume breaks through and stabilizes above 77,000, consider a small long position, targeting the next key resistance at around 85,000, with strict stop-loss placement to avoid risks from false breakouts.

Risk warning: Currently at a trend-changing point, with intense battles between bulls and bears. Be sure to control position sizes, avoid heavy leverage, and wait for clear signals before taking action. $BTC