Just noticed cocoa's been getting hammered lately. May futures dropped another 2.36% on Monday while London contracts fell 3.45%, though prices are still holding above the lows we saw last week. The real story in the cocoa market news is that buyers are basically ghosting the official prices from West Africa right now - they're way too high compared to spot rates. That's why warehouse inventories just hit a 5-month peak with over 2.1 million bags sitting around.

The supply situation is looking pretty bloated. Global cocoa supplies are robust, and demand has been pretty weak - chocolate makers are struggling as consumers push back on those sky-high chocolate prices. Barry Callebaut reported a brutal 22% drop in cocoa division sales volume last quarter. Grinding data across Europe, Asia, and North America all came in softer than expected, which tells you everything about where demand is headed. On top of that, favorable harvest conditions in Ivory Coast and Ghana are pushing even more cocoa into the market, and Nigeria's exports jumped 17% year-over-year.

The cocoa market news suggests we could see more downside pressure unless something shifts on the demand side. Production forecasts for 2025/26 show potential declines in both Ivory Coast and Nigeria, which might provide some support eventually. But for now, it's a buyer's market and prices reflect it. Worth watching those port shipment numbers from Ivory Coast - they're running slower than last year, which could tighten things up.