Most people I talk to are genuinely worried right now. Around 80% of Americans are at least somewhat concerned about a recession coming, and honestly, I get it. The question everyone keeps asking is when is the stock market going to crash — and if you look at certain metrics, it's hard not to feel some anxiety.

The Shiller CAPE Ratio is sitting at levels we haven't seen since the dot-com bubble days. That's the kind of thing that keeps you up at night if you're paying attention. So yeah, a downturn could be coming. But here's what I've learned after years of watching markets: worrying about timing the crash is actually the worst move you can make.

I know this sounds simple, but it's the truth — staying invested through volatility is basically your only real defense. Think about the math: the average bear market since 1929 lasts around 9.5 months. Bull markets? They last nearly three years on average. That's a massive difference.

The real kicker is what happens when you panic. I've seen people sell at the worst possible time, locking in losses they never needed to take. Meanwhile, the people who just held on? They made money. The S&P 500 is up nearly 45% since the beginning of 2022, which was literally the start of the last bear market. Since the dot-com crash in 2000, it's up around 400%. Four hundred percent.

Here's what history actually shows us: there's never been a downturn the market didn't eventually recover from. Every single one. Not one. So when you're wondering when is the stock market going to crash, the real answer is — it probably will at some point, but that's not actually the important question. The important question is what you do when it happens.

If you stay patient and keep your money invested, you're statistically far more likely to make money than lose it. The longer your time horizon, the better your odds. That's not a guarantee, but it's about as close as you get in markets. Panic-selling after a crash is how people turn temporary losses into permanent ones.

So if there's one move that actually matters for your portfolio, it's this: stop trying to predict the crash and just stay in the game. The market has always recovered before, and it will again. Your job isn't to time it perfectly — it's just to not get in your own way.