Recently, I saw someone compare the curve of stablecoin supply to ETF net inflows, and then conclude in one sentence, "Money is coming in, so it should go up." Frankly, the correlation is really too easy to fool oneself with; there are many ways for off-chain funds to flow in: some buy spot, some do arbitrage first, and others just park on exchanges or on-chain as a "parking lot," which may not immediately reflect in the price.

The RWA wave is also quite similar; people compare U.S. Treasury yields with on-chain yield products, which seems very reasonable, but the underlying risk structures are completely different: compliance, redemption, counterparties, on-chain protocol risks... Looking at them mixed together easily leads to the illusion of "on-chain is more attractive / traditional is more stable," a false dichotomy.

Recently, I also experienced a follow/unfollow cycle: at first, I thought some data posts were very insightful, but later I realized they were always implying causality and subtly adding emotion. After paying attention for a while, my mindset was being led astray, so I simply unfollowed. Anyway, planting trees takes time to grow, no need to chase the wind all the time.