Negotiating while imposing a blockade? Market: I don't care, I'm going up first!

The recent market movements are a bit like "arguing while sending red envelopes."
On one side, the maritime blockade is in effect, and the tense atmosphere is at its peak;
On the other side, expectations for negotiations are rising, and the market has directly entered a rebound mode.
DeFi sector has risen 5% in 24 hours, and this is not ordinary volatility—it's a typical—
"Expected trading."
So the question is: Will Iran make a key concession?
Looking at it more realistically, they probably won't make a "long-term concession" directly (like restrictions at the 20-year level).
But short-term compromises are possible because both sides need a "cooling-off step."
So what the market is betting on isn't "a complete resolution," but:
— The situation won't continue to worsen.
Where is the rebound ceiling?
Short-term: depends on sentiment (how much further it can go)
Medium-term: depends on negotiations (whether they are fulfilled)
Long-term: depends on the overall situation (whether it stabilizes)
Allocation suggestions:
✔ Crude oil: strong trend, but don't chase
✔ Cryptocurrency: in recovery phase, can participate
✔ Precious metals: as insurance, keep some reserved
One sentence summary:
The market isn't rising because of certainty, but because things are "not so bad."
#美伊局势和谈与增兵博弈