These five days have been really interesting. Trump managed to settle the EU within five days just by relying on a few tweets and tariff threats, and along the way he also negotiated from Greenland a land cession, participation rights in mineral development, and improvements to the “Golden Dome” defense system. Honestly, no one can match this negotiation skill.

Back to the market. In the past few days, the US stock market has already recovered more than half of the earlier losses, gold has also pulled back, and Bitcoin is currently only rebounding slightly. The current question is whether it can pull off that highest-difficulty “expansion move”—that is, after creating a lower low near 89,000, it immediately reverses and bounces in perfect coordination with the news. This still needs to be observed; first, let’s see whether 90,800 can be reclaimed.

There’s a detail that’s worth paying close attention to. Japan’s long-term government bond yields have also fallen by more than half, and sell-off sentiment has clearly eased. Judging from on-chain data of big whales, after Trump announced the cancellation of the 10% tariff and reached a preliminary agreement, those large holders have basically already bought back the large amount of BTC that they had suddenly sold last Saturday. This buy-back action also indicates something— they actually expected this outcome.

Have you ever wondered whether BitcoinOG and some big holders were going crazy going long yesterday because they already knew Trump would handle things this quickly? Their long positions they entered are now still almost all on the books, and they haven’t exited yet.

Judging from how quickly this was resolved within these five days, the midterm elections are the top priority. Before that, the US stock market can’t crash, and the economy can’t be too bad. This is the bottom line.