Musk's tweet once again sent DOGE back into the spotlight, but when I look at the numbers, I see an interesting trend. The price is now at $0.09 with only a 1.48% increase over 24 hours — a significant difference compared to what the market saw in previous years. I remember how his statement in 2021 sent DOGE soaring by 80% in one day, then the "DOGE department" in 2024 brought over a 110% increase. Today? Barely 1.5%. It seems the festival effect is gradually fading.

I see several reasons for this. First, there's the mechanics of the coin itself — 5 billion DOGE are added each year, and the circulation has already exceeded 153 billion units. That means scarcity isn't a factor, and when new supply floods the market, it's hard to buy into it. Additionally, even though DOGE ETF exists, money flowing into it is slow — by the end of last year, it was only $2 million with an AUM of around $5.2 million. That's a pittance compared to other altcoins.

From a technical perspective, DOGE is still in a daily downtrend. The RSI is at 33.7, approaching oversold territory, but that doesn't necessarily mean a strong rebound. Support is at $0.1077, resistance at $0.1217. If the price breaks above $0.13, there could be attempts at $0.15, but without greater liquidity and institutional interest, it will just be another short-term fluctuation in the same cycle.

In the medium term — if Bitcoin remains under pressure, DOGE will fall even faster than other coins. If Bitcoin starts a new rally, we could see DOGE reach $0.25–$0.30 within a year, but that requires multiple factors aligning. A more pessimistic scenario? If a recession or increased regulation occurs, DOGE could drop below $0.074.

It's still a speculative asset driven by emotions and community consensus, not fundamentals. Without real technological progress and practical use, Dogecoin just spins in the same cycle. Short-term, it might be a trading opportunity, but long-term? I'm not convinced.