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BTC is currently fluctuating narrowly around 74,600, with strong resistance at 75,500.
On the macro level, US CPI exceeded expectations, the Federal Reserve's rate cut window has been delayed, US bond yields and the dollar are strengthening, and overall liquidity is tight. This round of market movement is not a flood of liquidity but mainly supported by internal structural funds. Tensions in the Middle East have driven up oil prices, intensifying inflation concerns. BTC, with its censorship resistance and de-dollarization attributes, has absorbed some safe-haven funds, offsetting selling pressure.
Institutional funding remains positive, with BlackRock's IBIT averaging $200 million in daily net inflows, and the selling pressure on Grayscale's GBTC has basically cleared. Spot holdings are locked by large investors, combined with high leverage in derivatives, making the market extremely sensitive.
In the short term, a deep shakeout and liquidation are highly likely, and after completing the chip turnover, a new direction will be chosen. Trading should strictly control positions, adhere to system discipline, and avoid impulsive orders.