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U.S. regulators at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) are investigating a $950 million oil bet made in the CME and ICE futures markets before Donald Trump posted about a ceasefire with Iran.
According to Bloomberg, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has been examining two trading cases over approximately two weeks, as trading volume surged to record levels ahead of major announcements. The request also includes Tag 50 data, which allows identifying all companies or entities behind the trading activities.
When the conflict began, supply disruptions from the Middle East led to rising oil prices. Prices then experienced sharp fluctuations as traders tried to predict when oil tankers would resume movement through the Strait of Hormuz.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) stated: "We are closely monitoring our markets and working closely with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to oversee trading activities." The exchange added: "It is important that any assessment of market behavior includes all platforms, including prediction markets like Boli Market and Kalshi, which list related products with little to no transparency."