I just looked at data from CME FedWatch about the market’s expectations for future Fed interest rates. It’s quite interesting; for March, the probability is still very low, only 15.3% for a 25 basis point cut. The majority of the market still expects the Fed to hold interest rates steady for now.

But what’s more interesting is the expectation for April. In April, the chance of a cut starts to rise to 29.7% for 25 basis points, while the probability of holding remains dominant at 67.2%. So the market is still fairly cautious about when the Fed will start cutting.

Looking further into June, the probabilities shift more significantly. The 25 basis point cut rises to 48.3%, and there’s also hope for a deeper cut of (50 basis points) at 16.4%. So over time, the market is becoming more confident that the Fed will eventually cut rates, but the timing remains uncertain.