How does the rise in oil prices affect our daily lives?

The impact of oil prices is very complex and difficult to clarify in just a few sentences.

For example, for car owners, although gasoline prices have increased, the magnitude is still significant.

But due to the price control mechanism of the National Development and Reform Commission, oil prices have not fully fluctuated with the international market, but instead adopted a complex buffering system.

Therefore, the shock experienced by car owners is not actually severe.

“Less increase” part of the difference is borne by state energy companies like China National Petroleum Corporation and Sinopec — their profit margins are squeezed. The other part is absorbed by the government through strategic petroleum reserve releases and tax adjustments.

The government acts as a “buffer,” using policy tools to smooth market shocks.

( Of course, many people will criticize that when crude oil prices are low, our gasoline prices do not decrease enough — that’s a different issue.

Setting aside gasoline prices, the first link in the transmission chain of oil price increases is the logistics industry.

In late March 2026, five franchised courier companies—ZTO, STO Express, YTO, J&T Express, and Yunda—simultaneously announced price adjustments.

Their reasons are identical: rising oil prices lead to increased transportation costs for companies.

The most specific adjustment is in Guizhou: the shipping label fee increased by 0.05 yuan per parcel, and the minimum courier fee was also raised. This is not an isolated event; similar adjustments had been made earlier in Sichuan, Yunnan, and other regions.

Why did courier companies respond so quickly?

Because fuel costs are the second-largest expense in the logistics industry after labor, accounting for 30%-40% of total logistics costs.

Road freight, air freight, and courier industries share this cost structure.

But an interesting phenomenon has emerged: although courier companies increased prices, the increase was limited.

Why?

Because consumers are highly sensitive to courier prices.

Many consumers, after seeing the price increase, reduce their online shopping frequency, especially for low-priced goods.

This creates a “painful choice”: courier companies can either raise prices significantly to fully offset costs but risk losing customers; or raise prices slightly, absorbing some costs themselves.

Most companies chose the latter because losing customers would be more costly.

The wave of courier price hikes started last year.

Additionally, the price increase in courier services is not solely due to rising oil prices; there are also “anti-involution” factors at play. The price hikes did not start this year but have been gradually happening since mid-last year.

Therefore, the reasons for logistics industry price increases are complex and cannot be solely attributed to oil prices.

The rise in logistics costs is just the first link in the chain.

More widespread impacts come from petroleum derivatives—plastic, fertilizer, synthetic fibers, and other basic chemical products.

The rising costs of petroleum derivatives like toilet paper, waterproof membranes, and plastic packaging directly increase the packaging costs of goods.

A piece of clothing might only add a few grams of plastic, but cumulatively, it can account for a 0.5-1% increase in the product’s price.

More seriously, fresh produce.

Fresh products go from farm to table via cold chain transportation, and the energy consumption of cold chains is directly linked to oil prices.

The operating costs of cold storage in supermarkets increase, leading to higher prices for vegetables, fruits, seafood, and other foods.

Consumers find it hard to perceive these price increases.

They may not notice changes in price tags, but the actual costs have already risen.

Some companies smartly adopt “shrinking packaging” — keeping prices unchanged but reducing the quantity per unit. This is especially common in daily chemical products and snacks.

As a result, consumers spend the same amount of money but buy less.

The impact of rising oil prices is similar to a butterfly effect, where layered transmission through the supply chain ultimately results in increased costs at the consumer end.

For ordinary people, this manifests as: more expensive fuel, higher courier prices, increased takeout fees, rising fresh produce prices, and fluctuations in airline ticket prices.

These seemingly independent price increases all originate from the same source — oil prices.

But more critically, it influences consumer choices.

Some opinions suggest that rising oil prices and resulting inflation could ease CPI pressure, but the actual transmission chain might not be so straightforward.

Under the overall rising cost of consumption, consumers may shift toward cheaper shopping channels, especially when the economic outlook is uncertain, making them more sensitive to price changes.

In this market’s spontaneous and rational response, consumption may trend toward “downscaling.”

For example, if international oil prices rise by 5%, it might increase the actual fuel costs for courier companies by 3%.

But when courier companies raise prices to offset this 3%, consumer orders could drop by 10-15% (due to high price sensitivity).

This 10-15% demand reduction then propagates upstream to packaging, printing, warehousing, and other suppliers, causing their orders to fall by 20-30%.

Ultimately, a tiny increase in costs is amplified infinitely through the supply chain, and the direction of this amplification may not be what everyone expects.

The CPI index cannot be viewed in isolation from other macroeconomic indicators; inflation is not always a positive outcome.

In conclusion, to understand why rising oil prices can influence the entire economy, it’s essential to grasp the unique role of oil in modern economies.

Oil is not only an energy source but also the foundation of basic industrial products. Its price changes transmit through multiple channels affecting the entire economic system. Specifically, oil’s impact manifests in three aspects:

First, direct consumables.

Transportation, logistics, and aviation industries directly consume gasoline and diesel. When fuel costs rise in these sectors, the increased freight costs are transmitted to all goods requiring transportation.

Second, raw materials.

Oil is the source of petrochemical industries, with downstream supply chains including: plastic products (packaging, containers), synthetic fibers (clothing, shoes), fertilizers (agricultural inputs), synthetic rubber (tires, industrial products), and various chemical products. These products are widespread throughout the economy. When crude oil prices rise, the costs of these derivatives also increase.

Third, energy substitution costs.

When oil prices rise, the relative attractiveness of other energy sources (natural gas, coal) increases, causing their prices to rise as well. This further broadens the scope of cost increases.

Finally, oil price increases should also be categorized by type.

Demand-driven (global economic recovery, widespread oil use) often accompanies economic prosperity and manageable inflation;

but supply shocks (OPEC production cuts, geopolitical conflicts) are dangerous, as rising costs without increased demand can directly squeeze corporate profits and residents’ purchasing power.

The result is not prosperity but recession.

One last question: who bears the cost of rising oil prices?

If we rank the “victims” of this oil price crisis, individual transport operators are undoubtedly at the forefront.

This group includes: professional truck drivers, ride-hail drivers, and others.

Their predicament lies in being at the weakest point in the supply chain.

Truck drivers are the most typical example.

On one hand, they face upstream “price pressure” — shippers say, since the market is highly competitive, if you don’t lower your prices, you will lose orders.

On the other hand, they face downstream “no price increase” — end customers are not interested in changes in logistics costs, only in the total price.

The result of being squeezed from both ends is that the rising costs due to oil prices are absorbed by the individual drivers themselves.

A user on Zhihu, “Lao Zhou,” shared his real experience.

He is a professional truck driver who recently spent thousands of yuan more on fuel each month due to rising oil prices.

But all he can do is “carefully plan, adjust his operations” — choosing shorter routes, more efficient cargo organization, and fuel-saving driving methods.

But all these efforts are just “a drop in the bucket” relative to the cost increase.

This cost increase is layered and borne by multiple entities:

First layer: the state.

By limiting domestic oil price increases (a 50% increase only results in a 12% increase for consumers), the government acts as the main “buffer.” This involves mobilizing fiscal, strategic reserves, and policy tools to shoulder most of the shock for the entire economy.

Second layer: energy companies.

State-owned enterprises like CNPC and Sinopec face increased costs due to rising oil prices but cannot fully pass on these costs because of price controls. Their profit margins are squeezed.

Third layer: circulation sector companies.

Logistics, courier, and related companies have increased prices but are limited by consumer price sensitivity; much of the cost increase is absorbed by the companies themselves.

Fourth layer: consumers.

Although the impact is relatively small, they still bear part of the increased costs — reflected in higher prices for fuel, courier, takeout, fresh produce, and other categories.

Fifth layer: individual workers.

Being the most vulnerable, they find it hardest to avoid cost pressures and can only bear the burden themselves.