Today will be a hot day in the markets. The U.S. Federal Reserve meeting is an event that will definitely shake volatility. I’ve been watching how expectations have changed, and it’s now clear that the market is almost unanimously aligned.

According to the schedule: the interest rate decision comes out at 9:00 PM Kyiv time, followed by Powell’s press conference at 9:30 PM. These moments are when everything will start to move. Economic forecasts are released simultaneously with the decision, so the first impact will be at 9:00 PM.

What’s interesting is that the consensus from CME Group is simply overwhelming. 99.5% are betting on a pause, with the rest expecting a quarter-point cut. Just a couple of weeks ago, it was 93.6% for a pause, but bad inflation data has convinced the market once and for all. This means that the decisions are already priced in; everyone is already waiting.

An interesting situation with Trump. He apparently hinted that he would like to see a significant rate cut and plans to discuss this with the Fed chair. Journalists will definitely ask about it, and I think the most intense volatility of the evening will come from Powell’s responses to these questions. It’s at this moment that you should keep your eyes open.