Bitcoin, falling back below $74,000... Surpassing $76,000 becomes a watershed.

Bitcoin (BTC) once surged to a monthly high of $76k but then retreated below $74k, entering a correction phase. Technically, there is a possibility of further adjustment in the short term, while institutional capital inflows and macroeconomic indicators remain supportive factors for Bitcoin's price.

Bitcoin started the week at $70k, soared to $76k on Tuesday, but then gave back some gains. The market also reflects technical pressure and caution over macro uncertainties. The U.S. Navy confirmed a comprehensive blockade of Iranian ports, raising concerns over oil supply disruptions, but President Trump mentioned that the conflict is nearing its end, easing the momentum for further oil price surges.

Falling bond yields also favor risk assets. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for March rose 0.5% month-over-month, significantly below market expectations of 1.2%. As inflation fears ease, U.S. Treasury yields decline, creating a relatively favorable environment for non-yield-bearing assets like Bitcoin (BTC).

The U.S. stock market also provides support. The Nasdaq index has risen for 10 consecutive trading days, with a roughly 10% increase since April, and Bitcoin (BTC) has gained about 8.5% this month. Some analysts believe cryptocurrencies are now evolving into assets that are more sensitive to macro trends rather than driven solely by industry-specific factors.

However, institutional demand remains robust. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $411 million on Tuesday alone. Considering a previous net outflow of $291 million the day before, the inflow momentum has resumed. The overall net inflow in April reached $741.9 million. Goldman Sachs applied to the U.S. SEC for a Bitcoin premium income ETF, indicating growing interest from traditional finance.

Technically, caution is warranted. Bitcoin remains within an upward channel since early February, but the $76k level is a key resistance, corresponding to March’s high and a long-term resistance level. A strong breakout above this zone could open the way toward $80k, $85k, and even the $88k level near the 200-day moving average.

Conversely, if it declines, initial support is at $71k, with stronger support at $69.6k. A drop below $65k would increase the likelihood of forming a lower low, and market sentiment could weaken further. Against the backdrop of macro variables and institutional supply and demand, whether Bitcoin (BTC) can break through $76k in the short term is expected to be a key zone determining its direction.

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