Just been reviewing the bitcoin halving cycle chart again, and honestly, the pattern is getting hard to ignore. We're now well into 2026, and looking back at how this post-halving cycle has played out since April 2024, it's pretty remarkable how closely it's mirrored the previous one.

Let me break down what we've seen so far. The 2020 halving kicked off a cycle that gave us a massive run-up to nearly 65K by April 2021. Then came that second top in December 2021 around the previous ATH—classic double top setup. By late 2022, roughly 30 months after the halving, BTC had essentially reverted back to the starting zone. Full circle.

Now, fast forward to the current cycle. We got that pre-halving push to around 73K in March 2024, then the halving dropped in April. And if you've been watching the charts, we did hit that first major peak around 100K or so roughly 9 months in, just like the model suggested. Then September 2025 rolled around—about 17 months post-halving—and we saw that second top forming, the distribution phase kicking in. It's been textbook so far.

Here's where it gets interesting. If this cycle truly rhymes with the last one, we should be looking at a significant pullback unfolding over the next few months. The projection suggests we could be testing much lower levels by October 2026—roughly 50K territory. That's 30 months after the April 2024 halving, completing the full cyclical move.

Now, before anyone panics, understand what's actually happening here. This isn't just random chaos. Halving cycles tend to follow a pretty consistent rhythm. You get the supply shock, the euphoria phase, the distribution, and then the reversion. It's happened multiple times. The supply dynamics are real, but so is market psychology. When everyone's making money in mid-2025, greed takes over. When reality sets in a few months later, fear does too.

The macro picture is clear: every halving sets off a new bull run, but the timing of peaks and troughs is surprisingly consistent. Tops usually cluster around 9-18 months post-halving. Full cycles complete around 30 months. Macro liquidity, supply shocks, and investor sentiment all feed into this pattern.

Current price is holding around 74K, down about 1.2% on the day. Could be noise, or could be the early stages of the correction phase. Either way, the bigger takeaway is this: if you rode the wave from April 2024 up to that September 2025 peak, the real skill now is managing the exit. Timing the top of the second peak versus getting trapped in the distribution is where fortunes are made or lost. History shows us the pattern. The question is whether you're paying attention to it.