QCP: BTC rebounded with risk assets to $74,000, but the market remains skeptical about the US-Iran agreement

Deep Tide TechFlow News, April 15, According to QCP Group analysis, BTC followed risk assets to rebound overnight, rising to the mid-range of $74,000. The trigger was the leak of news about the preliminary framework agreement between the US and Iran. However, long-term yields barely moved, gold remained high, and the bond market did not follow, indicating that this rebound is only a headline risk relief rather than a substantive geopolitical resolution.

The core contradiction lies in uranium enrichment—the current enrichment level in Iran is 60%, while the US demands it be reduced to below 20%. Iran has not shown any signs of compromise so far, and this issue has remained unresolved since 2015.

On the structure of the crypto market, BTC spot prices are slowly rising amid negative funding rates and low open interest, showing that bears are still resisting and pushing for a short squeeze, but the options market has not confirmed a breakout—short-term ATM volatility remains around 40, and 1-month volatility is still below 3 months, with downside protection demand still stronger than upside chasing.

On the macro level, the Federal Reserve’s net rate cuts this year are nearly zero, and liquidity conditions remain tight. QCP believes that this round of market movement is essentially a relief rebound driven by geopolitical factors, not a fundamental change in the macro pattern. The market should be cautious of a pullback after the rebound.