Been looking back at some of the bitcoin price prediction 2025 calls from last year, and honestly the demand signals were pretty interesting even if the $200K target didn't materialize. Around late 2024, the on-chain data showed whales were accumulating hard - something like 331K BTC annually, which was stronger than previous cycles. ETFs were also loading up significantly.

The thesis was solid on paper: when you see that kind of sustained demand from large holders, historically it precedes rallies. The Trader's Realized Price level around $116K was supposed to be the key breakout point that would open up a $160-200K range. But yeah, we know how that played out.

What's interesting is the demand patterns themselves were real - roughly 62K BTC per month flowing in. The whale accumulation definitely happened. Makes you wonder if we're just on a different timeline than expected, or if there were other factors that kept the price suppressed despite the fundamentals looking strong.