The recent market environment feels quite intriguing. While the stock market continues to hit all-time highs, cryptocurrencies are still in wait-and-see mode. This temperature difference is actually quite significant.

From a broad perspective, the stock market's leadership is dispersed across various sectors, with energy, commodities, and defense-related stocks leading the way. Meanwhile, stocks outside the "Magnificent Seven" are relatively weaker. On the interest rate front, the unemployment rate slightly exceeded expectations, which shifted the outlook at the January FOMC meeting clearly toward no rate cuts. However, the broader inflation outlook remains dovish. In fact, real-time inflation indicators are below 2.0%, and the PCE index, which the Fed emphasizes, has been declining since October.

An important point is that after the official end of quantitative tightening, the Fed's total assets have started to increase again. In other words, new liquidity is flowing into the system. The next Fed chair is widely expected to begin a rate cut cycle starting in the second quarter.

In this context, how is the relative performance of cryptocurrencies? While gold and silver are performing well, Bitcoin and Ethereum are facing their biggest headwinds. Capital may return to crypto eventually, but the timing remains uncertain. For now, the crypto market seems to be "waiting for Godot."

Among tradable options, MetaPlanet and Monero stand out. MetaPlanet has recovered from an 82% drop since June's high, completing a reversal from bearish to bullish. Meanwhile, Monero (XMR) has formed a 10-year ascending triangle, and recent attention on privacy coins suggests an upward move is expected. Developer exits from privacy coin projects could also serve as bullish catalysts for XMR.

Looking at Bitcoin's technicals, a reversal from bearish to bullish is underway. It has formed double bottoms in V and U shapes, which could develop into inverse head and shoulders or ascending triangles. These patterns suggest targets exceeding $100k. Previously, a breakdown of the bear flag posed a downside risk, but that threat has diminished with profit-taking selling expected at the end of 2025. However, inflows into Bitcoin ETFs remain negative, with about $700 million outflows last week.

Positioning data shows a modest but emerging bullish convergence. Both derivatives funding rates and CME's CoT data hint at early signs of bullishness. Traders are net bearish, but commercial participants maintain a bullish bias. If this imbalance triggers short covering, it could lead to a sharp rally.

Miner activity is also interesting. Recently, commercial miners, which had been neutral to bearish, have turned bullish. However, hash rate has sharply declined since mid-October. The hash ribbon formed a bearish cross in late November, historically associated with Bitcoin weakness. Yet, both hash rate and hash ribbon are attempting to stabilize during price correction phases, suggesting potential turning points in the coming weeks.

Institutional adoption is progressing smoothly, with major financial institutions involved. Morgan Stanley has filed for spot Bitcoin, Solana, and Ethereum ETFs. Lloyds Bank has completed the UK’s first gilt purchase using tokenized deposits. Barclays is investing in stablecoin payment companies amid developments in tokenization infrastructure.

Looking at the entire ecosystem, 2025 was characterized by a gap between trading activity and price performance. While seven major ecosystems saw increases in native total value locked (TVL), their tokens struggled to reflect that progress. Ethereum remains at the center of this transformation; its fundamentals are strengthening, but prices are subdued. Solana maintains high activity levels in meme coins, payments, DePIN, and AI-related projects, but token performance lags behind.

Bitcoin is on a different trajectory, with institutional holdings increasing via ETFs and publicly traded companies. Its total holdings now approach about 13% of supply. This month, the trading volume ratio of Solana ecosystem tokens to SOL surged over 40%, reaching a six-month high. PENGU (27%) and RAY (21%) are outperforming SOL (10%), indicating investor risk appetite is flowing into network-internal economies.

Ultimately, application-level monetization, capital efficiency, and institutional investor convenience seem to play increasingly vital roles in determining the relative performance of the entire crypto market. Tracking related assets at Gate could be quite insightful.