Been watching gold get hammered lately and it's honestly wild. Despite all the Middle East tensions that should be supporting it, gold's down around 20% from its January peak. The real culprit seems to be the rate picture - markets have basically priced out any cuts through 2026, and with oil prices pushing inflation higher, central banks aren't budging. That higher for longer environment is just toxic for gold as an asset.

What's interesting though is when you adjust gold for M2 money supply, it's actually trading at levels we saw back in 1974 and 2011. So on a liquidity basis, gold might be forming a floor here rather than collapsing. But the immediate headwind is clear - in a world where money stays tight and rates stay elevated, traditional gold plays lose their edge.

Bitcoin's painting a different picture. It's consolidating right now similar to 2024, but when you look at it on an M2 adjusted basis, it's retesting 2021 highs. Historically, each cycle has seen bitcoin break above prior peaks when you account for money supply expansion. With BTC still about 40% below its October high, this could just be the typical consolidation range before the next leg up.

Also noticed gold and bitcoin started moving together tick for tick after gold broke down from $5,000 earlier in the week - some positive correlation creeping back in after they'd been diverging. Interesting to see how these assets are trading off each other as macro pressures build.