I just read the new CoinShares report, and I’m curious why the market is so **exaggerating** the quantum threat to Bitcoin. The company makes an interesting argument—the threat is real, but far less critical than people claim.

The detail that caught my attention: although about 1.6 million BTC are in older P2PK addresses, where public keys are visible on the blockchain, the number of truly vulnerable coins is much lower. CoinShares estimates that only 10,200 BTC are large enough to cause noticeable market disruptions if stolen. The rest is spread across 32,000+ UTXOs, averaging 50 BTC each.

So, if someone tries to attack, they’d have to steal in small amounts. This isn’t the same as taking one large address and getting a sum capable of affecting the price. The process would become slow, loud, and not very profitable—even with super-powerful quantum computers.

What would it actually take to hack it for real? According to CoinShares, quantum computers would need to be 100,000 times more powerful than the largest current machines. For context: Google Willow has 105 qubits, and cracking would require millions. Even the most optimistic projections push this back by at least a decade.

Spending resources on panic isn’t worth it. Instead, CoinShares proposes a gradual transition to post-quantum signatures, treating it as a predictable engineering problem rather than an emergency. Projects like BIP-360 are already being developed for a gradual wallet migration.

What’s interesting is that the discussion is picking up momentum again precisely now, when the market is unstable and investors are looking for someone to blame. But Bitcoin developers mainly view it as a distant issue. Critics, meanwhile, argue that the real problem is the lack of a clear, transparent plan—especially since governments and large companies are already rolling out quantum-resistant systems.

In my view, CoinShares is right—there’s no need to panic, but there’s also no reason to ignore it. This is a long-term challenge that Bitcoin can absorb over time, as long as developers remain proactive. The fact that only a small portion of the supply is actually exposed to risk changes the entire conversation about quantum threats.