Recently, some people have been using the curve of stablecoin supply to force the idea that "ETF inflows will definitely drive prices up," which I find a bit uncomfortable. On-chain, what can be seen are minting/redeeming activities and the transfer paths of a few large addresses, but frankly, that's just a "change in the form of money," not necessarily new funds outside the market, nor does it mean they will immediately turn into buying pressure. ETF subscriptions and redemptions might also be hedged elsewhere; sometimes the correlation is just coincidental synchronization.

By the way, lately retail investors have been complaining about miner/validator income, MEV, and unfair ordering, which I can also understand... On-chain, seeing a bunch of front-running and reordering, it feels like "you just entered the market and got slippage education." I'm now more willing to take it slow: watch the flow of funds back and forth for a few days, don't rush to draw causal conclusions, and then see what happens.