I noticed something interesting in the on-chain data. Small investors have been accumulating significantly over the past few months — wallets under 0.1 BTC are at their highest share since mid-last year. Meanwhile, you see that the larger holders, who usually lead the market, have been distributing their positions since October. That’s quite remarkable actually.

The thing is: small players can create a bottom, but they can't sustain a real rally. Every time the price rises a bit, you see those big wallets start distributing again. According to Glassnode's metrics, there was a moment in February when it looked better — mid-sized holders were aggressively buying — but across the entire spectrum of large wallets, the net position remains negative.

Bitcoin is still trading around $74K, but what I’m really waiting for is for those big holders to stop distributing, or better yet, turn to accumulation. Without that, every rally will just face headwinds. The minnows are doing their part, but we need the whales to really make this work.