U.S. EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending April 10 will be released at 22:30. This data will affect the “dabei” (BTC) market through the transmission logic of crude oil supply and demand, inflation expectations, and U.S. dollar liquidity. If the actual inventory increase is far below expectations—even if it continues to decline—tighter crude oil supply and demand will push oil prices higher, strengthen U.S. inflation persistence, and lead the market to price in that the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut cycle will be delayed. The U.S. Dollar Index will strengthen; under the highly negative correlation between “dabei” and the U.S. dollar, and the impact of tightening global liquidity, “dabei” will weaken under bearish pressure driven by these factors. If, instead, the actual inventory increase is significantly higher than expected, crude oil supply will exceed demand and weigh on oil prices, easing inflation pressure, and reinforcing expectations for the Fed to cut rates earlier. The U.S. Dollar Index will weaken; expectations for loose liquidity will boost risk-asset sentiment, and “dabei,” as a high-volatility instrument, will directly benefit and is likely to rise. If the actual inventory increase is close to expectations and matches market pricing precisely, its impact on crude oil and the U.S. dollar will be limited, and “dabei” will continue its current technical trend, with volatility driven by other macro data or market sentiment.

In addition, the sub-item data in the report—such as strategic petroleum reserves and crude oil production—will also affect oil-price sentiment. A sharp decline in strategic reserves and production coming in below expectations will strengthen the logic of a tight supply-and-demand balance, amplify the bearish effect related to inflation, and turn bearish for “dabei.” Conversely, it will reinforce the logic of inflation moving downward and be positive for “dabei.” #币圈