I just saw that XRP dropped 4% and honestly, the biggest realized losses of $1.93 billion in a week—that's the largest spike since 2022. This piece of information shows heavy panic selling that occurred.

Looking back at history, when such large-scale capitulation events happen, they usually signal that the market bottom is approaching. Weak hands surrender, and the coins transfer to long-term holders with stronger conviction. That puzzle piece is important because when that happens, the price foundation tends to become more stable afterward.

But here’s the catch—current context is different. There’s macro uncertainty, regulatory changes, and markets remain volatile. Realized losses are increasing, which means sellers are tired, but selling pressure hasn't disappeared yet. The recovery piece depends on demand improvement and stabilization of the spot market over the next few weeks.

Historical data shows that after such large surrender events, a 114% rally occurred in the following months. But that was 39 months ago. Now, the puzzle has more variables—macro headwinds, regulatory uncertainty, and whether follow-through on capitulation will happen.

So basically, what we’re seeing now is emotional exhaustion in the market. If demand stabilizes after this, it could be a real turning point. But if selling pressure continues, it suggests that distribution isn’t over yet. For now, data points to capitulation, which has historically been fertile ground for recoveries. It all depends on what happens next.