On April 15th, former U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that she still believes the United States may cut interest rates later this year, but oil price fluctuations triggered by the Iran war have cast a shadow over the outlook. Yellen pointed out that this is a broad supply shock affecting multiple sectors including gasoline, liquefied natural gas, fertilizers, food, shipping costs, and semiconductors. While she does not rule out the possibility of raising interest rates, stable long-term inflation expectations suggest that such a scenario is unlikely. She expects that interest rate cuts may be implemented by the end of this year.