Dalio chose a very curious moment to voice his criticisms of bitcoin. On Tuesday, the founder of Bridgewater appeared on the All-In Podcast and said: investors need to stop comparing bitcoin to ouro. His argument? The largest cryptocurrency is not backed by a central bank, does not offer real privacy, and faces serious threats from quantum computing in the long term.

He was very direct: there is only one ouro. Ouro is the most established form of money, the second-largest reserve currency among central banks. End of story.

But here’s the problem: market reality didn’t support his claim. On the very day of those statements, ouro fell 3% (around $168, closing at $5.128), while bitcoin fell only 0.7% to $68.700. We were in the midst of the EUA-Irã geopolitical crisis—exactly the kind of scenario in which ouro should shine as a safe-haven asset. But it wasn’t quite like that.

The decoupling between the two assets had been happening for some time. Until October, bitcoin and ouro moved together. After that, everything changed. Bitcoin plunged more than 45% from its October peak. Ouro rose 30%, surpassing $5.100 over the same period. Completely opposite trajectories.

During the crisis week, ouro surged during Saturday’s attacks, but then gave back the gains as the conflict widened and petróleo became the main concern. Bitcoin fell on Saturday, recovered on Sunday after news about Irã, was rejected at $70,000 on Tuesday, and then stabilized in the $67,000 range. Neither of them acted as a true safe haven. Both showed considerable volatility. Bitcoin was simply less volatile, which is not the result Dalio would have expected.

His specific criticisms are also not new. He argues that any bitcoin transaction can be monitored and potentially controlled on a public ledger, livro razão público. He questions whether central banks will ever truly accumulate an asset like that. And yes, he mentions quantum computing as an existential risk.

But he is not entirely pessimistic. Dalio keeps about 1% of his portfolio in bitcoin for diversification. He has even recommended a combined allocation of 15% between bitcoin or ouro, calling it the best risk-adjusted return given the trajectory of dívida americana. Last month, he warned that the EUA-led world order had “broken” and that investors need to rethink how they protect their wealth.

The question that remains is: if ouro is still the only prescription, why is the market debating it so actively? This week’s price action did not help defend his thesis. Bitcoin stabilized better than expected, while the “only true” ouro took a bigger drop. Maybe it’s exactly this kind of behavior that is causing the market to reconsider what really works as protection in times of crisis.