Bitcoin is stuck at $71,000, and it really doesn't feel good. After the crash last week down into the 60s, the recovery quickly stalled again – and that tells me this is more of a classic bear trap than a genuine trend.

What worries me: The volumes have dropped by about 30 percent compared to October and November. The spot volume has fallen from around one trillion to 700 billion dollars. With such thin order books, even moderate selling pressure can trigger sharp swings – and then stop-losses and liquidations trigger each other. That explains why Bitcoin can fluctuate thousands of dollars within a single session without truly breaking through any level.

The Fear and Greed Index fell to 6 over the weekend – the same level as in 2022 after FTX. That’s not just nervousness, but real fear. Analysts warn of a new test of the 200-week moving average around $60,000. Retail investors are gradually leaving the market instead of panic-selling – and without the typical capitulation volume, the market lacks a clear bottom.

For now, it’s crucial whether the $60,000 level holds. If yes, the whole thing could settle into a frustrating sideways movement. If no, and volumes remain thin, it could quickly head back down. With current prices around $74,000, we are still 40 percent below the high of $126,000 – showing how much correction we’ve already seen. The question is whether that was the worst or if more is yet to come.