Hey guys, Bitcoin's MACD histogram has just sounded the alarm again. For the third time since October, this indicator has crossed into negative territory, and anyone following the chart knows what tends to happen after that.

Since BTC hit that peak back in October, the pattern has been practically perfect: when the MACD turns red, the drops are brutal. In November, it fell from US$106 mil to US$80 mil in just a few days. In January, it went from US$90 mil and plunged to almost US$60 mil. Now the histogram is blinking red again, and bitcoin is around US$74,1 mil.

The interesting thing is that every time the indicator turns positive — supposedly signaling a rally — the recovery is weak and quick. It seems sellers have total control. Meanwhile, buyers can only manage disappointing bounces that last briefly before the next drop.

For those who aren’t familiar: MACD works by comparing two exponential moving averages. The histogram shows the difference between the MACD line and its signal line. When it’s positive, that’s a sign of an uptrend; when it’s negative, like now, it’s a real downtrend. And the histogram’s slope still indicates how intense all of this is.

Of course, past performance doesn’t guarantee the future, but when a signal with such an accurate track record starts blinking red, it’s kind of risky to ignore. Bulls should stay alert — this pattern has been repeating for months.