I'm just looking at the wallet data and something interesting is happening with Bitcoin. The smaller investors — with less than 0.1 BTC — are accumulating significantly. Their share of the total supply is now at the highest point since July 2024. At the same time, we see that the larger holders, the real whales with 10 to 10,000 Bitcoin, have been selling since the peak last year.

That's actually quite a strange picture. Retail is doing its thing and buying in, but the big players are moving in the opposite direction. According to data from Santiment, those large wallets have decreased by about 0.8% since October. These kinds of opposing movements usually lead to that annoying sideways market where you don't really go anywhere.

The interesting part is that a few weeks ago, we actually saw a clear accumulation signal. After that crash in February to around $60k , mid-tier wallets with 10 to 100 Bitcoin were buying very aggressively. Glassnode's accumulation score was then at 0.68 — quite strong. But now we're looking at a broader spectrum, and the picture is more mixed. The large holders keep distributing with every recovery.

That's actually the crucial point. Bitcoin doesn't need retail. Retail is already here. What’s needed is for those big wallets to stop selling, or even better, start accumulating themselves. Without that, every attempt at a real rally risks being drained by the same group. The shrimps are doing their best, but until the whales really switch into accumulation mode, the market is a bit stuck.