I've been watching the Bitcoin dollar market lately, and something feels off. Institutions are buying at an incredible rate, yet the price remains stagnant. Looking at the data from last March, ETFs and strategic channels absorbed a total of 94,000 BTC, yet net demand is still negative 63,000 BTC. What this means is that individual investors and miners are selling much faster than institutions are buying.

What’s even more interesting is the movement of whale wallets. Even a year ago, big holders were continuously accumulating, but now they’re moving in the exact opposite direction. About 400,000 BTC have shifted from accumulation to distribution over the past 18 months. And medium-sized holders have also slowed their buying pace by more than 60%. While the Bitcoin dollar price is moving in the 74,000 range, the realized price is in the 54,000 range, so there’s still a 21% premium. Historically, this gap tends to tighten when it’s the real bottom—but right now, that gap is being compressed rapidly.

The fear and greed index is in an extreme fear zone, yet institutional buying continues. What this gap shows is that the flow of money isn’t translating into trust. U.S. institutional investors are also not re-entering the Bitcoin dollar market. The Coinbase premium index has been negative since October. Over the past 5 weeks, the price has moved between 65,000 and 73,000; when the news is good, it rises, and when the news is bad, it falls—repeating that pattern. In the end, multiple signals are appearing at the same time that the demand structure is weakening internally.

Even so, there are still positive signals. Morgan Stanley has received approval for a low-fee Bitcoin dollar ETF, and 16,000 advisors managing assets worth 6 trillion won have gained access. The strategic channels are also continuing to absorb 44,000 BTC every month. In the short term, if tensions in the Iran conflict ease, there’s a chance of a rebound to between 71,500 and 81,200. Ultimately, whether the current support holds depends on whether these institutional channels can continue to absorb the remaining supply from the rest of the market.