I noticed that Bitcoin has had a rather turbulent week. A few days ago, the price dropped below $82,000, losing about 7% of its value, while the CoinDesk 20 index experienced even sharper declines around 10%. What struck me was Glassnode's comment on a critical support level around 83.4k — the point where many short-term holders were in loss.

Kevin Warsh's nomination as Federal Reserve chair had strengthened the dollar at that time, putting pressure on all digital assets. Bitcoin indeed fell below that key support and approached 80.7k, which analysts call the true market average price. Meanwhile, Santiment was signaling extreme fear in social sentiment — and here’s the interesting part: historically, when the Fear and Greed Index drops so sharply, the market tends to recover.

What intrigues me is that despite all this pessimism, long-term holders were liquidating at the fastest rate since August. Yet, funding rates on derivatives remained contained, suggesting that speculators weren’t really capitulating. Matt Hougan of Bitwise argued at that moment that we might be in the final stages of a bear market bottom, the kind of scenario where the meaning of ‘bull’ — the rally — begins to take shape just when everything seems lost.

Now, looking at the current data, Bitcoin is at 73.87k with a +3.28% increase over the past 7 days. It’s interesting how the market is moving in the opposite direction of the fear expectations from a few weeks ago. Liquidity remains the key variable — if support holds, we could really be close to that rebound that contrarian analysts have been anticipating.