I just reread an analysis by Michael Saylor that has me thinking a lot. The guy compares Bitcoin's current cycle to that famous 'valley of despair' Apple went through years ago. And honestly, the analogy is quite interesting.

For those unfamiliar with the reference, Apple went through that phase where the hype deflated, critics started attacking, and it seemed like the project was dead. But what happened afterward was the iPhone revolution. Saylor is suggesting that Bitcoin might be at a similar point now.

What catches my attention is how this is reflected in the derivatives of the cow we’re seeing in the markets. While the mainstream narrative remains skeptical, the derivatives of the cow on institutional exchanges continue to accumulate. It’s as if those who truly understand the game are positioning themselves silently.

The logic is interesting: when desperation is at its peak, that’s precisely when the fundamentals are strongest. Apple didn’t disappear in its valley; it simply went unnoticed by most while building something revolutionary. Is Bitcoin at that same point? The derivatives of the cow suggest that some big players believe so.

Of course, this isn’t a guarantee of anything. The crypto market is unpredictable. But the parallel with Apple makes me think that those who see Bitcoin as a dead project might be making the same mistake critics made in the 90s. The derivatives of the cow in institutional order books could be a more honest indicator than any news headline.

Anyway, it’s a good reminder that sometimes the greatest potential is where fewer people are looking. Especially when the derivatives of the cow are shouting something different from the overall market sentiment.