I noticed yesterday that the put/call ratio on Bitcoin options reached 0.84, the highest since 2021. Traders are offering record-high prices for downside protection, almost as if they're really afraid of the market even though spot prices are stable. Put premiums have reached 4 basis points relative to volume, which is triple the levels seen during the 2022 crisis.

But interesting—based on VanEck data, whenever there's this much fear in the options market, it's usually a sign that a pump is near. In the past six years, similar defensive readings have been followed by an average 13% gain over 90 days and 133% over a year. Realized volatility has dropped from 80 to 50, and funding rates have fallen to 2.7% from 4.1%, meaning less leverage in the market.

So this seems like a classic contrarian signal—investors are scared, but historically that's the setup before a rally. Maybe it's worth just monitoring when sentiment starts to shift.