I just saw the comments Ray Dalio made this week about bitcoin and gold, and the market reality practically debunked them in real time.



The founder of Bridgewater Associates argued on a popular podcast that investors should stop comparing bitcoin to gold. His point: bitcoin has no backing from central banks, lacks real privacy, and faces existential risks from quantum computing. Ray Dalio was quite clear: there is only one gold, he said, because it is the most established form of money and the second-largest reserve currency held by central banks.

But here’s the interesting part. On the same day Ray Dalio made those criticisms, gold plummeted nearly 3% to $5,128, while bitcoin barely dropped 0.7% to $68,700. This happened just as one of the most serious geopolitical conflicts in years between the U.S. and Iran was beginning, exactly the kind of crisis for which Ray Dalio says gold should protect you.

Both assets’ movements have been chaotic all week. Gold surged sharply after the initial attacks on Saturday, then gave up those gains as the conflict intensified. Bitcoin was sold off on Saturday, rebounded on Sunday, was rejected at $70,000 on Tuesday, and has since stayed around $67,000. Neither has acted as a true safe haven. Both have been volatile, although bitcoin has shown less volatility, which is ironic considering Ray Dalio’s thesis.

Now, Ray Dalio isn’t completely skeptical of bitcoin. He holds about 1% of his portfolio in the cryptocurrency for diversification. He even recommended in July a combined allocation of 15% between bitcoin and gold, calling it the best risk-return ratio given the U.S. debt spiral. And Ray Dalio has warned that the U.S.-led world order is breaking down, meaning investors need to rethink how to protect their wealth.

The decoupling between bitcoin and gold isn’t new. They moved together from July until early October, until the broader crypto crash in October liquidated leveraged positions. Since then, they’ve been moving in opposite directions. Bitcoin has fallen more than 45% from its October high, while gold recovered 30% to surpass $5,100 in the same period.

What Ray Dalio raised about transparency in bitcoin is also valid: any transaction can be monitored. He questioned whether central banks would ever accumulate an asset that operates on a public ledger. And quantum computing is truly a long-term concern.

But this week, market data simply doesn’t support the narrative that gold is the only reliable solution. Ray Dalio has legitimate points about bitcoin, but its relative performance during one of the worst geopolitical crises in years suggests the conversation is more nuanced than he presents.
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