Wang Jinxuan: Gold prices collapse from high levels and plunge. Today's gold market trend analysis

Gold Market Trend Analysis:

On April 2nd, gold continued its oscillating upward trend as expected yesterday, with the intraday high reaching 4793, precisely approaching the key resistance level of the 20-day moving average previously anticipated. The daily chart closed higher again, achieving four consecutive positive days and a strong rebound pattern. However, this morning, market conditions suddenly changed. Trump’s speech hinted at a possible short-term escalation of military actions in the Middle East, triggering a sharp rebound in the US dollar index. Gold was hit by this bearish news, experiencing a cliff-like retreat, with the intraday low quickly dropping to around 4650, completely giving back yesterday’s gains, and the bullish structure suffered a heavy blow.

From a technical perspective, after four consecutive days of gains, gold reached the strong resistance at the 20-day line of 4800, which had already accumulated substantial profit-taking pressure. There is a strong need for a correction and adjustment, as clearly indicated in yesterday’s analysis. The geopolitical bearish news this morning just served as a trigger for the correction, not only releasing technical pullback pressure but also potentially intensifying the adjustment, even directly ending this rebound and pushing gold back into a medium-term downtrend. Key resistance today is near the 20-day line at 4780, while support levels are sequentially at the 5-day line around 4630-4620 and the 10-day line at 4540. It is expected that gold will mainly fluctuate weakly in the next two days, and whether it can fully confirm a return to a downtrend depends on further guidance from this Friday’s non-farm payroll data, especially if it effectively breaks below the moving averages’ support.

Combining the hourly chart structure, although yesterday’s gold price maintained a rebound, the upward momentum and the 4800 resistance level were within expectations, and signs of stagnation at high levels have already appeared. The sharp decline this morning due to geopolitical news formed a clear break and retreat pattern. Although there was a slight rebound around 4650 to confirm a technical correction, it remains a minor retracement and cannot change the overall weak pattern. Intraday resistance is first seen in the 4740-4750 range, with core strong resistance still concentrated around 4780-4800. Support at 4650 is only temporary; if further lost, especially if it falls below 4600, it will confirm the restart of the medium-term downtrend, and the downside space will be fully opened.

Currently, the technical correction needs of gold and the fundamental bearish signals are resonating, both pointing toward a weak retracement trend. Therefore, the intraday trading strategy should shift entirely to short positions. In the absence of clear bullish support, it is advisable to abandon long positions and strictly implement a high-level shorting strategy.

Trading Suggestions: If the price rebounds to the 4740-4750 range today, consider entering short positions in batches. If it reaches near 4780, add small short positions. All short orders should have a manual stop-loss above 4800. Existing high-level short positions overnight can be held. The target is around 4660-4650; upon reaching, reduce positions to lock in profits, and continue to watch the 4600 level for a potential fight. If it effectively breaks below 4600, long-term short positions can be maintained, targeting the medium-term downtrend.

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Editor: Chen Ping