I saw something interesting in the market data today. The small investors – you know, those wallets with less than 0.1 BTC – are buying heavily. Their share of the total Bitcoin supply is now the highest since mid-2024. But here’s the problem: while these small players are accumulating around the current price of about $74K, the big whales are doing the opposite. Those large holders, which you call a cohort – a group with similar characteristics – with 10 to 10,000 BTC have actually been reducing their positions since October.

Santiment’s data shows that these smaller investors have grown by 2.5%, but the larger players have decreased by 0.8%. This kind of split always causes price fluctuations without a clear direction. Retail might form a bottom, but for real rallies, you need the big guys to join in.

The funny thing is, this picture was very different just a few weeks ago. After that crash in February to $60K , you suddenly saw much more synchronous accumulation. The Glassnode score was then 0.68 – quite strong. But now? Now you’re faced with this divergence where the mid-sized wallets may have bought during the panic, while the real whales keep selling on every recovery. Without those big holders actually starting to buy, every rally remains vulnerable. The shrimps are doing their thing, but we’re waiting for the whales.