I noticed from Glassnode data that XRP's current setup is similar to what happened in early 2022. Back then, the price was close to $0.78 before dropping significantly to $0.30 in the middle of the year. Now, the pattern seems to be starting again.

The problem is the ongoing cost-basis split. Those who bought recently this past week are already in profit, but holders from six to twelve months ago are still at a loss. This creates a sense of obligation in the market—old holders are just waiting for a chance to cut losses, not to add to their positions. When there's a retest of the $2 zone, data shows that there are between $500 million and $1.2 billion in realized losses every week. Many people use that level as an exit point.

The $2 mark has become a real psychological barrier. Every attempt to break it increases pressure because of those stuck in losses. This doesn't guarantee a repeat of the 2022 crash, but as this imbalance persists, the weight on new buyers who entered during recent highs becomes heavier. XRP is currently at $1.36, so it's still far from that barrier, but the tension between new demand and old supply remains.