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Monday's Bitcoin trading was truly a roller coaster. Right after Trump announced on Truth that he would delay attacking Iran's power plants for five days, Bitcoin surged from $67,500 to over $71,200, but then Iran completely denied it. In just a few minutes, it lost $1,200.
What’s scary in these situations is leveraged trading. There was a liquidation of $415 million in just four hours. Only in Bitcoin trading, $15M, and in Ethereum, $120 million. Short liquidations totaled $280 million, and long liquidations $135 million, so many people probably took positions expecting the escalation of the war at the time of Trump’s post. But then Iran’s denial reversed everything.
What’s interesting is crude oil futures. There was a liquidation of $64.4 million in Hyperliquid’s Brent futures, but almost all of it was longs. In other words, they correctly predicted the direction of the war, but completely misread Trump’s next post.
In the end, by Monday evening, Bitcoin was around $70,000, up 2.3% during the day. Headlines showed intense movement over a few hours, but the actual price change was limited. But the damage to those trading Bitcoin with leverage is another story. Since the derivatives market is trading five times the volume of spot, even the smallest news can amplify into cascading liquidations in both directions. Short-term traders really need to be careful.