I noticed something interesting in the Google Trends data for the US. Searches for 'bitcoin to zero' shot up last month to record levels, just as BTC dropped back from around 60k. Sounds like a classic capitulation signal, right? The same happened in 2021 and 2022 just before local bottoms.

But here’s where it gets interesting: worldwide, the same search has been cooling off for months. The peak was last August, now it’s fallen to much lower levels. This suggests that the fear is more localized in the US than truly global. Possibly due to specific American factors—tariffs, geopolitics, risk-off sentiment in stocks.

And then there’s something I’m pondering: Google Trends shows relative interest on a scale of 0-100, not absolute search volumes. A score of 100 now, with many more Bitcoin users than in 2022, doesn’t carry the same significant meaning as it did back then. The user base has grown substantially, so that peak might just mean it’s relatively higher against a much larger baseline.

So yes, retail fear in the US is clearly elevated, but does this have significant meaning as a contrarian signal? Less certain. Especially not as a global trend. It can still be interesting, but not the clear ‘buy now’ signal some make of it.