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No one talks about altcoins anymore. In fact, this might be a bullish sign.
Looking at Santiment’s data, mentions of “Alt Season” on social media have fallen to nearly the lowest levels. Isn’t this the quietest it’s been in the past two years? This is actually quite interesting.
The reason is that this term is almost a gauge of retail investors’ desires and speculative sentiment. When everyone is shouting that “Alt Season is here,” it’s usually near the market peak. Conversely, when people stop talking about it, it often means large holders are quietly adding to their positions.
The current situation for altcoins is indeed bleak. Dogecoin has fallen sharply from its cycle peak, and Solana and Cardano have also experienced deep drawdowns. Funds are flowing into Bitcoin and stablecoins, and small altcoins aren’t getting so much as a glance.
Sentiment indicators are also pessimistic. The Fear and Greed Index is stuck in the fear zone, and the premium index from a certain major U.S. exchange has been negative for a long time. Search trends like “buy cryptocurrency” have completely cooled off.
But the interesting part is what happens from here. When you look at on-chain data, wallets holding 100 BTC or more have, for the first time, approached 20,000 in the late part of last month. In other words, big players are buying the dip.
Bitcoin briefly tested near $76,000, but then retraced to around $74,000. The perpetual funding rate on a certain major CEX has remained negative for 46 days, indicating that shorts are building up. In such long-term risk-off environments, historically, they often precede sharp rallies.
Not all the conditions for Alt Season are in place. But the sentiment environment is gradually coming together. If Bitcoin can regain stability, market psychology should change significantly. This current state where almost nobody shows any interest might be the preparation phase for the next move.